Miers Withdrawal

Ok, I know I am a little late on this, but bear with me if you have heard this commentary before.

There are two differing opinions on why Miers' nomination was ultimately a failure:

1. She was an idiot and could not properly describe the eleventeenth amendment.

2. She did not have the proper cred with the right wing of the GOP (i.e. she did not publicly and forcefully say we should commit genocide on all homosexuals).

I think it was a combination of these two things, although to whose pressure Bush bowed will help us reason out what kind of judge his new nominee will be.

Those who believe opinion 1 can say that Miers lost the support of the moderates - most notably Specter - in the GOP and could not have been confirmed without them. I will not argue that she is a complete and utter idiot - who else would think Bushie is the coolest ever? - but since when has that stopped Bush from getting his way? The counter to that is Bush is at his lowest point in his presidency. His political capital was bought on margin and has quickly evaporated. He has the Plame investigation, a failure of a war in Iraq, a failure of a social security policy and a weakening economy all on his hands. Add to that a Senate majority leader soon to be under investigation for insider trading and Bush's hands are pretty much tied.

It can be a comforting thought that Bush is being forced back to the middle; however, the problem with Miers was not her views, but rather her incompetence. Therefore we still need to worry about the possibility that Bush will nominate a Roberts clone - a dark horse with an excellent resume - in which case the GOP moderates will be back on Bush's side and we may wind up with another justice like Roberts, who may or may not be a Scalia or Thomas.

Those who believe opinion 2 are certainly painting a dark picture of our times. Whether it is true or not I still think is up for debate. This opinion centers around the idea that Bush could not get Miers onto the court because of lack of far right support. This is evidenced by senators like Brownback demanding to see her credentials - i.e. if she believes that Darwin is a test from god - because of a lack of certainty as to where she stands. As an aside, I love how the right wing accuses Democrats of politicizing the court - when it should be about judges' ability to interpret the law - and then goes ahead to commit unadulterated hypocrisy. IOKIYAR I guess. Getting back to the point, this opinion carries a lot more water than I would like it. Why else would Dobson be called to testify in front of the senate judiciary committe? The right wing made it very clear very quickly that they were not happy with Miers - she was too stealthy for them to believe she would do whatever Bush wanted - and even accused her of being a liberal. I guess that is akin to accusing her of being a wolf in sheep's clothes, but if she is a liberal that would make her a sheep in wolf's clothes. Dangerous, dangerous sheep that will kill us all.

If opinion 2 is the case, then we can only expect Bush to nominate another Bork in order to shore up his base. Most likely Lutting, Owen or Rogers-Brown. I do not think Gonzo is holy enough - and he is a minority - for the true believers. However, if Bush nominates another Bork it remains to be seen whether he can get that nominee passed.

As I stated before, I think the truth is a mix of these two opinions. It comes down to where Bush was feeling the most pressure from, which we still do not know, though we will be able to tell when the next nominee comes around, which I imagine will be soon to divert attention from the Plame case. Regardless of these opinions the bottom line is that Bush is weak. Whether he decides to gamble on his next nominee and put forth a Bork will all depend on what he thinks he can get away with. Now that is a scary thought.

Finally, on the other side of the aisle I am ambivalent to the Democrats' strategy through all of this. Keeping silent and not taking a stand may have worked out very well for them in this situation, but that probably will need to change in the near future. What is most important to keep in mind is that whatever their strategy is, they need to have a modicum of unity when they execute it and speak with the same voice.